Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 3.581114 4.198981 4.883014 5.695260 6.632223 7.677880 8.932031
2025-10-05 2.762515 3.631164 4.696861 6.094619 7.873172 10.053686 12.921998
2025-10-12 2.157995 3.123442 4.414153 6.252015 8.785300 12.135270 16.878131
2025-10-19 1.760047 2.767250 4.216144 6.427431 9.685934 14.272934 21.170184
2025-10-26 1.437965 2.434508 3.964493 6.446627 10.323666 16.084585 25.206379
2025-11-02 1.153363 2.091558 3.621152 6.245411 10.567129 17.309341 28.490223
2025-11-09 0.917046 1.774660 3.254144 5.928483 10.553853 18.100393 31.155584
2025-11-16 0.765552 1.572779 3.039235 5.818878 10.843782 19.378256 34.709952
2025-11-23 0.651537 1.416122 2.874099 5.762609 11.202527 20.789813 38.617938
2025-11-30 0.594952 1.360113 2.883664 6.022831 12.152139 23.310404 44.695109
2025-12-07 0.521323 1.253802 2.776714 6.039382 12.641405 25.049978 49.544333
2025-12-14 0.456045 1.152296 2.661794 6.019586 13.050643 26.674034 54.332402
2025-12-21 0.398940 1.060108 2.555872 6.012001 13.502428 28.465005 59.705116
2025-12-28 0.388405 1.077430 2.693572 6.549708 15.152492 32.781161 70.458016
2026-01-04 0.355871 1.033428 2.684793 6.760910 16.135465 35.865853 79.075918
2026-01-11 0.326583 0.991660 2.674063 6.965134 17.127181 39.069446 88.255889
2026-01-18 0.291320 0.926003 2.593696 6.991309 17.718692 41.486873 96.027601
2026-01-25 0.249518 0.832272 2.425724 6.776129 17.719746 42.622510 101.161676
2026-02-01 0.208724 0.731656 2.221176 6.434720 17.370564 42.936677 104.515356
2026-02-08 0.182357 0.669229 2.109110 6.316617 17.552036 44.469644 110.745509
2026-02-15 0.161445 0.619351 2.023422 6.255943 17.869343 46.347954 117.944976
2026-02-22 0.153425 0.611183 2.058401 6.536893 19.108625 50.543827 130.961500
2026-03-01 0.138650 0.575704 2.004584 6.554767 19.648604 53.088545 140.260927